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Should I ship an Otome Visual Novel?
Otome + Visual Novel
Of 146 developers who shipped an Otome Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 253 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.6k, ×47 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×1325 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 253 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.6k (exactly $1,619) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.6k (exactly $5,607) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,093) |
| Top 5% | $158k (exactly $157,721) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 146 |
| Released games | 624 |
| Announced | 253 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Otome
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Otome, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Multiple Endings, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 19,196 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 8 in 10 of the 91 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 253 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Otome with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + IncrementalStrong odds
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + Interactive FictionPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + SimulationPoor odds
- + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + Word GamePoor odds
- + MysteryPoor odds
Comparable games
Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M 
DRAMAtical Murder 2021 · $2.8M 
Hatoful Boyfriend 2014 · $1.7M 
Ken ga Kimi 2020 · $1.6M 
私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 2022 · $1.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
| | DRAMAtical Murder | older | $19.99 | 4,640 96% | 139k | $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) | Nitro+CHiRAL |
| | Hatoful Boyfriend | older | $9.99 | 5,533 94% | 166k | $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) | Mediatonic, Hato Moa |
| | Ken ga Kimi | older | $49.99 | 1,065 93% | 32k | $1.6M (exactly $1,597,180) | Rejet |
| | 私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 | older | $9.99 | 5,322 96% | 160k | $1.6M (exactly $1,595,003) | TetraScope |
 | 月华辉映之刻 | $11.99 | 4,227 89% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) | 侠客狗工作室 | |
 | BUSTAFELLOWS | older | $39.99 | 968 86% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) | NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC. |
 | My Vow to My Liege | older | $9.99 | 3,844 91% | 115k | $1.2M (exactly $1,152,047) | YETU GAME |
 | Amnesia™: Memories | older | $9.99 | 3,721 92% | 112k | $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) | Idea Factory, Design Factory |
 | 灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 | $9.99 | 3,682 90% | 110k | $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) | 莓夜工作室 | |
 | Sensei! I Like You So Much! | $16.99 | 1,304 86% | 39k | $665k (exactly $664,649) | LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD）) | |
 | Meiji Tokyo Renka Full Moon | $59.99 | 196 91% | 5.9k | $353k (exactly $352,741) | dramatic create | |
 | 我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live | $9.99 | 864 85% | 26k | $259k (exactly $258,941) | 番茄炖肉制作组 | |
 | Heart Cage | $20.99 | 363 97% | 11k | $229k (exactly $228,581) | RiceLoveCoffee | |
 | INtLOVErt Game Club | $39.99 | 186 96% | 5.6k | $223k (exactly $223,144) | じょせふ | |
 | The Ethereal Dream | $19.99 | 263 74% | 7.9k | $158k (exactly $157,721) | 鸭子与葱制作组 | |
 | The Silent Kingdom | · EA | $17.99 | 290 99% | 8.7k | $157k (exactly $156,513) | Lucky Cat |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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