Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Visual Novel
Only 9 developers shipped a Visual Novel Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sora no Kiseki the 1st, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $55k, ×88 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.3M, ×14916 the market median. Revenue is up 525% on the market; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $3.2k (exactly $3,237) |
|---|---|
| Median | $55k (exactly $55,172) |
| Top 25% | $231k (exactly $230,992) |
| Top 5% | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 101 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 525% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 15,428 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M 
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M 
Super Robot Wars 30 2021 · $10M 
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Library Of Ruina | older | $29.99 | 40,605 94% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,532,318) | ProjectMoon |
| | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
| | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
| | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | Sora no Kiseki the 1st | $59.99 | 5,205 97% | 156k | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
 | Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth1 | older | $14.99 | 10,135 94% | 304k | $4.6M (exactly $4,557,710) | IDEA FACTORY Co., Ltd., COMPILE HEART C… (IDEA FACTORY Co., Ltd., COMPILE HEART Co., Ltd., FELISTELLA Co., Ltd.) |
 | Soul Hackers 2 | older | $59.99 | 2,300 65% | 69k | $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) | ATLUS |
 | Banner of the Maid | older | $16.99 | 6,580 86% | 197k | $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) | Azure Flame Studio |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- | $57.99 | 765 77% | 23k | $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Crown Gambit | $17.99 | 428 94% | 13k | $231k (exactly $230,992) | WILD WITS GAMES | |
 | Wander Stars | $24.99 | 148 92% | 4.4k | $111k (exactly $110,956) | Paper Castle Games | |
 | Infinity: HexaDome Tactics | $19.99 | 92 75% | 2.8k | $55k (exactly $55,172) | Blindspot Games | |
 | VED | $19.99 | 53 79% | 1.6k | $32k (exactly $31,784) | Karaclan | |
 | HALF-BAKED GIRLS | $11.99 | 9 88% | 270 | $3.2k (exactly $3,237) | MISTROLE | |
 | Honoiro no Jikou 穗色时光 | $19.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) | Shanghai Yaxian Huizhi Technology Co.,… (Shanghai Yaxian Huizhi Technology Co., Ltd.) | |
 | 神的名字 | $8.99 | 5 20% | 150 | $1.3k (exactly $1,348) | ciallo |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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