Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Cooking game?

Cooking + Visual Novel

Of 54 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $980; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×714 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 72 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $4.8k → $60k → $9.3k → $10k → $1.0k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $980 (exactly $980)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,267)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 5% $339k (exactly $338,972)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 108
Announced 72
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Cooking, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 7,932 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $980, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $980. 6 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Kaiju Princess 2 $17.99 3,107 96% 93k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848) PantyParrot
Venba older $14.99 2,393 93% 72k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,132) Visai Games
Kemono Teatime $12.99 1,617 95% 49k $630k (exactly $630,145) Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU
Witchy Life Story older $19.99 965 80% 29k $579k (exactly $578,710) Sundew Studios
Cooking Companions older $14.99 1,081 93% 32k $486k (exactly $486,126) Deer Dream Studios
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
Pixel Cafe older $12.99 833 91% 25k $325k (exactly $324,620) Baltoro Games
GIRLS MADE PUDDING $9.99 866 95% 26k $260k (exactly $259,540) Kazuhide Oka
Chihiro Himukai Always Walks Away older $19.99 320 96% 9.6k $192k (exactly $191,904) SMILE
Waning Flowers of a World Eternal - The Rainbow Appears After Flowering Rain $19.99 297 96% 8.9k $178k (exactly $178,111) SWEET&TEA
Midori no Kaori $9.99 464 94% 14k $139k (exactly $139,061) TheLaba
Coffee & Boobs $7.99 463 74% 14k $111k (exactly $110,981) TopHouse Studio
High Times $19.99 163 90% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Yangyang Mobile
Kitchen Sync: Aloha! $19.99 159 99% 4.8k $95k (exactly $95,352) Lemonpepper Games
Anime City · EA $14.99 201 72% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Shoujo City Developer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.