Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Visual Novel
Only 13 developers shipped a Visual Novel Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Revenue is up 380% on the market; 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.7k (exactly $5,664) |
| Top 25% | $27k (exactly $26,861) |
| Top 5% | $520k (exactly $520,113) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 10 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 380% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Visual Novel; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, JRPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 831 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
Comparable games
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris 2020 · $3.0M 
Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten 2022 · $1.4M 
SAMURAI MAIDEN 2022 · $1.2M 
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered 2026 · $520k 
Ken ga Kimi: Momoyo Tsuzuri 2020 · $286k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris | older | $19.99 | 5,017 61% | 151k | $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) | AQURIA Co., Ltd. |
| | Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten | older | $59.99 | 759 80% | 23k | $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) | AQUAPLUS |
| | SAMURAI MAIDEN | older | $59.99 | 648 60% | 19k | $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) | SHADE Inc. |
| | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
| | Ken ga Kimi: Momoyo Tsuzuri | older | $49.99 | 191 86% | 5.7k | $286k (exactly $286,443) | Rejet |
 | 大侠请重来 | older | $1.99 | 3,564 82% | 107k | $213k (exactly $212,771) | 熊窝dodox |
 | NinNinDays2 | older | $14.99 | 159 91% | 4.8k | $72k (exactly $71,502) | iMel, qureate |
 | DragonStone Revenge | $14.99 | 146 60% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $65,656) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Elf Breeding Farm | older | $11.99 | 174 67% | 5.2k | $63k (exactly $62,588) | Miel |
 | AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match | $19.99 | 104 33% | 3.1k | $62k (exactly $62,369) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Togainu no Chi: True Blood NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 58 98% | 1.7k | $52k (exactly $52,183) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO CHiRAL | |
 | Shadowhand Solitaire | $13.99 | 64 90% | 1.9k | $27k (exactly $26,861) | Grey Alien Games | |
 | Ladies, Don’t Tempt My Immortality | $10.99 | 57 89% | 1.7k | $19k (exactly $18,793) | 蒸汽满满工作室 | |
 | Spellbound Beauties | $6.99 | 72 83% | 2.2k | $15k (exactly $15,098) | Lunar Kiss Games | |
 | Trap for the Heir | $8.99 | 21 90% | 630 | $5.7k (exactly $5,664) | MariLuzaria | |
 | Cyrano | $2.99 | 14 85% | 420 | $1.3k (exactly $1,256) | Popcannibal | |
 | Lotus: Lost Memories | $4.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $898 (exactly $898) | Fenyx Digital |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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