Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Visual Novel

Only 11 developers shipped a Visual Novel Farming Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Greenhearth Necromancer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $29k, ×61 the market median. Revenue is up 1330% on the market; 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 1330% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $79k → $210 → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,181)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $29,014)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 40
Announced 13
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1330% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim, Visual Novel
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 84% positive over 218 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  9. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  11. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds24 devs · median $31k · 36 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cloud Meadow · EA older $19.99 5,134 85% 154k $3.1M (exactly $3,078,860) Team Nimbus
Summer in Mara older $19.99 1,464 75% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Chibig
Witchy Life Story older $19.99 965 80% 29k $579k (exactly $578,710) Sundew Studios
Dong-Jin Rice-hime(東津萌米) older $19.99 352 90% 11k $211k (exactly $211,094) STORIA, Narrator, SimonCreative
HAREM!RANCH LIFE older $17.99 208 70% 6.2k $112k (exactly $112,258) GNT BOKUJO
Wild Season older $16.99 179 24% 5.4k $91k (exactly $91,236) Quickfire Games
Let's Go! My Harem Farm older $14.99 198 79% 5.9k $89k (exactly $89,041) XO_PROJECT
NejicomiSimulator TMA02 older $22.99 114 76% 3.4k $79k (exactly $78,626) やぶから堂, たまぷろじぇくと
Morningdew Farms: A Gay Farming Game older $19.99 123 83% 3.7k $74k (exactly $73,763) Y Press Games
Deiland: Pocket Planet older $14.99 132 68% 4.0k $59k (exactly $59,360) Chibig
Greenhearth Necromancer $10.99 88 96% 2.6k $29k (exactly $29,014) Silverstring Media Inc.
My Party Needs An Alchemist $19.99 40 87% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Gilded Rune Games
PurrPlate $9.99 64 68% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) LeankomGames
Kawaii Clicker Reborn $8.99 9 88% 270 $2.4k (exactly $2,427) EXAMGAMES
Pumpkin Love $3.99 14 78% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Samurai Drunk
Furry Uncensored $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) FURRAI_XXX
巅峰之路 $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) 橙光游戏
Gnomestead $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GORT Industries
The Alchemist's Cards $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Lighthouse Studio
The Ultra Realistic Accurate Farmer Simulator $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) CGCFSS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.