Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Hack and Slash game?

Hack and Slash + Visual Novel

Only 11 developers shipped a Visual Novel Hack and Slash game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ys X: Nordics, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $85k, ×135 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2551 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 134.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hack and Slash + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $44k → $85k → $180k (still earning) → $178 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hack and Slash + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,200)
Median $85k (exactly $84,515)
Top 25% $254k (exactly $253,603)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 54
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hack and Slash
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Hack and Slash, Visual Novel
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 8,866 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $85k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hack and Slash with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  2. + Turn-Based CombatStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + VampiresFair32 devs · median $7.2k · 37 announced
  4. + ModernFair13 devs · median $7.2k · 20 announced
  5. + IdlerFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair40 devs · median $1.7k · 57 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds11 devs · median $119k · 25 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds27 devs · median $58k · 80 announced
  9. + DestructionPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $33k · 20 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $21k · 26 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds17 devs · median $16k · 40 announced

All 175 pairs on the Hack and Slash page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition 2017 · $6.9M Fate/EXTELLA LINK 2019 · $6.3M Fate/Samurai Remnant 2023 · $6.0M Fate/EXTELLA 2017 · $4.9M SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS 2017 · $4.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition older $39.99 5,731 78% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,875,481) AQURIA
Fate/EXTELLA LINK older $49.99 4,209 92% 126k $6.3M (exactly $6,312,237) Marvelous Inc.
Fate/Samurai Remnant older $39.99 5,018 90% 151k $6.0M (exactly $6,020,095) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Fate/EXTELLA older $39.99 4,091 91% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,907,973) Marvelous Inc.
SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS older $29.99 4,986 94% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,485,904) Tamsoft
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris older $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
SENRAN KAGURA Burst Re:Newal older $29.99 2,433 92% 73k $2.2M (exactly $2,188,970) Tamsoft
DEAD OR SCHOOL older $24.99 2,607 84% 78k $2.0M (exactly $1,954,468) Studio Nanafushi
Ys X: Nordics $59.99 890 76% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Ys X: Proud Nordics $69.99 168 75% 5.0k $353k (exactly $352,750) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Warrior of Lust $11.99 255 79% 7.7k $92k (exactly $91,724) Aerisetta
Femtazio $9.99 304 81% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Aerisetta
Maiden Cops $9.99 282 87% 8.5k $85k (exactly $84,515) Pippin Games
Sera's Adventure -Cave of Destruction- $18.99 76 53% 2.3k $43k (exactly $43,297) 渡里laboratory
Drealegy $10.00 14 64% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,200) ArcWillow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.