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Should I ship a Visual Novel Base Building game?
Base Building + Visual Novel
Only 9 developers shipped a Visual Novel Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Harem in Another World, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $42k, ×67 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×309 the market median. Revenue is up 6545% on the market; 17 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $7.7k (exactly $7,740) |
|---|---|
| Median | $42k (exactly $41,822) |
| Top 25% | $128k (exactly $128,377) |
| Top 5% | $194k (exactly $193,821) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 33 |
| Announced | 17 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.90 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 6545% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $12.90 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,728 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $7.8k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard 2023 · $3.4M 
Wild West Legacy 2024 · $1.4M 
Dong-Jin Rice-hime（東津萌米） 2017 · $211k 
Harem in Another World 2026 · $194k 
Midori no Kaori 2025 · $139k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Yog-Sothoth’s Yard | older | $10.99 | 10,207 93% | 306k | $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) | Bone Nail |
| | Wild West Legacy | older | $26.99 | 1,706 39% | 51k | $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) | Moon Punch Studio |
| | Dong-Jin Rice-hime（東津萌米） | older | $19.99 | 352 90% | 11k | $211k (exactly $211,094) | STORIA, Narrator, SimonCreative |
| | Harem in Another World | $14.99 | 431 94% | 13k | $194k (exactly $193,821) | Jong Games | |
| | Midori no Kaori | $9.99 | 464 94% | 14k | $139k (exactly $139,061) | TheLaba | |
 | Horny Warp: Hentai Fantasy | older | $6.99 | 654 92% | 20k | $137k (exactly $137,144) | LuminatiGames |
 | Immoral-Bathhouse | $8.99 | 476 80% | 14k | $128k (exactly $128,377) | 奶油貓工作室, バター貓スタジオ | |
 | HAREM！RANCH LIFE | older | $17.99 | 208 70% | 6.2k | $112k (exactly $112,258) | GNT BOKUJO |
 | Island, Sex & Survival | older | $12.99 | 197 74% | 5.9k | $77k (exactly $76,771) | 無人島觀光促進會 |
 | Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing | $19.99 | 107 89% | 3.2k | $64k (exactly $64,168) | Pumpernickel Studio | |
 | LAN Party Adventures | $14.99 | 93 89% | 2.8k | $42k (exactly $41,822) | LEAP Game Studios | |
 | PurrPlate | $9.99 | 64 68% | 1.9k | $19k (exactly $19,181) | LeankomGames | |
 | Almost Castaways | $12.90 | 20 100% | 600 | $7.7k (exactly $7,740) | Pent Panda | |
 | 双雄风流传（Romantic Emperor） | $2.18 | 53 86% | 1.6k | $3.5k (exactly $3,466) | Turtle game | |
 | Teen Zombie In Your Cabin | $5.99 | 16 93% | 480 | $2.9k (exactly $2,875) | Pent Panda | |
 | Ravager - Moon-Friendly Edition | · EA | $19.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) | 4MinuteWarning |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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