Games › Sports › Sports + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Sports game?
Sports + Visual Novel
Of 38 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 31 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.4k (exactly $3,443) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $17,258) |
| Top 5% | $163k (exactly $163,284) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 38 |
| Released games | 182 |
| Announced | 31 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sports
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sports, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Simulation, Action
- Price point
- $3.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,265 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds
- + CraftingFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + SandboxFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + FMVFair
- + BikesFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Choices MatterFair
- + Choose Your Own AdventureFair
Comparable games
Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue 2019 · $5.3M 
Little Busters! English Edition 2017 · $1.2M 
Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue - EXTRA2 2022 · $1.0M 
Waifu Fighter 2022 · $642k 
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX 2025 · $519k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue | older | $34.99 | 5,080 97% | 152k | $5.3M (exactly $5,332,476) | sprite, NekoNyan Ltd. |
| | Little Busters! English Edition | older | $34.99 | 1,097 97% | 33k | $1.2M (exactly $1,151,521) | VisualArts/Key |
| | Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue - EXTRA2 | older | $24.99 | 1,400 99% | 42k | $1.0M (exactly $1,049,580) | sprite, NekoNyan Ltd. |
| | Waifu Fighter | older | $7.99 | 2,677 86% | 80k | $642k (exactly $641,677) | Happy Monster Studio |
| | Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX | $9.99 | 1,733 85% | 52k | $519k (exactly $519,380) | Tora Creatives | |
 | KAMITSUBAKI CITY ENSEMBLE | older | $3.99 | 1,448 70% | 43k | $173k (exactly $173,326) | KAMITSUBAKI STUDIO, Studio Lalala |
 | Westview Academy - Season 1 | $12.99 | 419 73% | 13k | $163k (exactly $163,284) | TakoYuh | |
 | Garfield Kart 2 - All You Can Drift | $24.99 | 216 45% | 6.5k | $162k (exactly $161,935) | Eden Games | |
 | TOGETHER VR | older | $12.99 | 335 62% | 10k | $131k (exactly $130,550) | AURORA Games |
 | Lessons with Chii-chan | older | $19.99 | 157 63% | 4.7k | $94k (exactly $94,153) | Orcsoft |
 | Something To Write About: Unbroken: Book One | $13.99 | 201 90% | 6.0k | $84k (exactly $84,360) | SeanchaiStudios | |
 | Infinity: HexaDome Tactics | $19.99 | 92 75% | 2.8k | $55k (exactly $55,172) | Blindspot Games | |
 | Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels | $8.99 | 163 92% | 4.9k | $44k (exactly $43,961) | Tora Creatives | |
 | Vilde | $15.99 | 87 74% | 2.6k | $42k (exactly $41,734) | Chaotic Minds | |
 | Wet Passion | $4.99 | 195 81% | 5.9k | $29k (exactly $29,192) | FlirtFit Studios | |
 | God of Yoga | $14.99 | 60 61% | 1.8k | $27k (exactly $26,982) | WorkNite Games | |
 | Sexercise Club | $7.99 | 99 77% | 3.0k | $24k (exactly $23,730) | Dreamers Workshop |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.