Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Roguelite?
Roguelite + Visual Novel
Of 66 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 89 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $18k, ×38 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×1152 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 89 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,884) |
|---|---|
| Median | $18k (exactly $18,268) |
| Top 25% | $95k (exactly $95,320) |
| Top 5% | $547k (exactly $547,252) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 66 |
| Released games | 154 |
| Announced | 89 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelite
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Roguelite, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Simulation
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 21,308 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 5 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 89 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-TimeFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TypingFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DogsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LogicFair
- + DwarvesPoor odds
Comparable games
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation 2018 · $39M 
GNOSIA 2022 · $3.6M 
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard 2023 · $3.4M 
StarVaders 2025 · $2.8M 
School Days 2026 · $2.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation | older | $24.99 | 52,522 94% | 1.6M | $39M (exactly $39,375,743) | ProjectMoon |
| | GNOSIA | older | $24.99 | 4,855 93% | 146k | $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) | Petit Depotto |
| | Yog-Sothoth’s Yard | older | $10.99 | 10,207 93% | 306k | $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) | Bone Nail |
| | StarVaders | $24.99 | 3,760 97% | 113k | $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) | Pengonauts | |
| | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | Take Me To The Dungeon!! | older | $10.99 | 3,895 93% | 117k | $1.3M (exactly $1,284,182) | Hanabi Fuusen |
 | Nunholy | $7.99 | 5,150 88% | 155k | $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) | Chowbie | |
 | DRAPLINE | · EA | $9.99 | 1,826 96% | 55k | $547k (exactly $547,252) | KANAWO |
 | ISEKAI QUEST | older | $3.99 | 3,679 85% | 110k | $440k (exactly $440,376) | Studio Ginkgo |
 | Half-Demon Shinobi | $10.99 | 1,242 89% | 37k | $409k (exactly $409,487) | 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機 | |
 | Rebirth Pub | $17.99 | 700 92% | 21k | $378k (exactly $377,790) | Seikou Soft. | |
 | Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator | $19.99 | 513 91% | 15k | $308k (exactly $307,646) | Strange Scaffold | |
 | Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse | $19.99 | 340 77% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | EXLIX | |
 | Menherarium: Deadly Dice | $8.99 | 669 92% | 20k | $180k (exactly $180,429) | テスカトリポカ | |
 | 轮回修仙传 | $4.99 | 1,085 81% | 33k | $162k (exactly $162,424) | Collider Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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