Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Visual Novel?

Logic + Visual Novel

Of 114 developers who shipped a Logic Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×13 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is flat on the market; 135 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 135 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 114
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $891 → $2.8k → $2.5k → $2.2k → $1.6k → $4.7k → $538 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 114
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,552)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,515)
Top 5% $651k (exactly $651,383)
Developers, 2 yr 114
Released games 325
Announced 135
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Logic, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.98 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.98 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 43,583 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $650k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
The Incident at Galley House $19.99 4,087 94% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) William Rous, Evil Trout Inc.
Train45 $10.99 3,823 97% 115k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,443) Elniko
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest $24.99 922 89% 28k $691k (exactly $691,223) Team Tetrapod
Trials of Innocence $16.99 1,308 91% 39k $667k (exactly $666,688) 猫龙游戏
Syberia - Remastered $29.99 724 70% 22k $651k (exactly $651,383) Virtuallyz Gaming, Microids Studio Paris
Murder by Numbers older $14.99 1,152 85% 35k $518k (exactly $518,054) Mediatonic
Milfy City - Final Edition older $19.99 710 79% 21k $426k (exactly $425,787) ICSTOR
The Shell Part III: Paradiso $19.99 622 96% 19k $373k (exactly $373,013) Innocent Grey
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Demons' Timeline $10.99 1,046 97% 31k $345k (exactly $344,866) DigitalCats
Stellar Code $24.98 448 97% 13k $336k (exactly $335,731) Fragaria

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.