Games › Arcade › Arcade + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Arcade game?
Arcade + Visual Novel
Of 101 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×5.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 84 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $598 (exactly $598) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $15,912) |
| Top 5% | $162k (exactly $161,935) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 101 |
| Released games | 442 |
| Announced | 84 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Arcade
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Arcade, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $3.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 12,196 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + TrainsFair
- + MiningFair
- + FaithFair
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + EconomyFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Card BattlerFair
- + LootFair
- + VampiresFair
- + RomanceFair
Comparable games
MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA 2021 · $14M 
BlazBlue Centralfiction 2017 · $11M 
UNBEATABLE 2025 · $5.5M 
Persona 4 Arena Ultimax 2022 · $3.5M 
Melty Blood Actress Again Current Code 2016 · $2.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA | older | $49.99 | 9,130 88% | 274k | $14M (exactly $13,692,261) | FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc.,… (FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., TAMSOFT CORPORATION, GameLoop Inc.) |
| | BlazBlue Centralfiction | older | $39.99 | 9,476 94% | 284k | $11M (exactly $11,368,357) | Arc System Works |
| | UNBEATABLE | $27.99 | 6,552 92% | 197k | $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) | D-CELL GAMES | |
| | Persona 4 Arena Ultimax | older | $29.99 | 3,857 87% | 116k | $3.5M (exactly $3,470,143) | Arc System Works, ATLUS |
| | Melty Blood Actress Again Current Code | older | $24.99 | 3,819 93% | 115k | $2.9M (exactly $2,863,104) | FRENCH-BREAD |
 | BlazBlue: Chronophantasma Extend | older | $29.99 | 2,385 91% | 72k | $2.1M (exactly $2,145,784) | Arc System Works |
 | UNDER NIGHT IN-BIRTH Exe:Late[cl-r] | older | $24.99 | 2,816 94% | 84k | $2.1M (exactly $2,111,155) | FRENCH-BREAD |
 | Denshattack! | $19.99 | 2,910 98% | 87k | $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) | Undercoders | |
 | Refind Self: The Personality Test Game | older | $7.99 | 3,592 87% | 108k | $861k (exactly $861,002) | Lizardry |
 | BlazBlue: Continuum Shift Extend | older | $19.99 | 1,253 91% | 38k | $751k (exactly $751,424) | Arc System Works |
 | Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator | $19.99 | 513 91% | 15k | $308k (exactly $307,646) | Strange Scaffold | |
 | Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile | $39.99 | 221 78% | 6.6k | $265k (exactly $265,134) | Microids Studio Lyon | |
 | Souper Game | $14.99 | 550 78% | 17k | $247k (exactly $247,335) | SinBeans Studio | |
 | Garfield Kart 2 - All You Can Drift | $24.99 | 216 45% | 6.5k | $162k (exactly $161,935) | Eden Games | |
 | Starlight Revolver | · EA | $12.99 | 404 54% | 12k | $157k (exactly $157,439) | Pahdo Labs |
 | Falling with Ice Phoenix! | $9.99 | 300 92% | 9.0k | $90k (exactly $89,910) | F Project | |
 | Creepy Tale: Snow Child | $11.99 | 248 91% | 7.4k | $89k (exactly $89,206) | Creepy Brothers | |
 | Maiden Cops | $9.99 | 282 87% | 8.5k | $85k (exactly $84,515) | Pippin Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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