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Should I ship a Visual Novel FMV?
FMV + Visual Novel
Of 166 developers who shipped a Visual Novel FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced.
Verdict: strong odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $54k, ×113 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $6.8k. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 146 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.4 per shipper.
| Bottom 30% | $6.9k (exactly $6,885) |
|---|---|
| Median | $54k (exactly $53,646) |
| Top 25% | $175k (exactly $174,741) |
| Top 5% | $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 166 |
| Released games | 379 |
| Announced | 146 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- FMV
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- FMV, Visual Novel; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Interactive Fiction, RPG, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 90,747 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $6.9k. 3 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
FMV with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SurvivalStrong odds
- + Post-apocalypticStrong odds
- + StrategyStrong odds
- + Multiple EndingsStrong odds
- + Immersive SimStrong odds
- + Choices MatterStrong odds
- + Dating SimStrong odds
- + RomanceStrong odds
- + SimulationStrong odds
- + JRPGStrong odds
- + RPGStrong odds
- + Life SimStrong odds
Comparable games
Love Is All Around 2023 · $11M 
Revenge on gold diggers 2025 · $9.8M 
Mirror 2: Project X 2022 · EA · $6.6M 
428: Shibuya Scramble 2018 · $5.6M 
Road to Empress Ⅱ 2026 · $4.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Love Is All Around | older | $9.99 | 36,203 93% | 1.1M | $11M (exactly $10,850,039) | intiny |
| | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
| | Mirror 2: Project X | · EA older | $1.99 | 111,251 24% | 3.3M | $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) | KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs |
| | 428: Shibuya Scramble | older | $49.99 | 3,767 94% | 113k | $5.6M (exactly $5,649,370) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
| | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
 | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Road to Empress I | $8.49 | 11,829 86% | 355k | $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) | New One Studio | |
 | Her Story | older | $9.99 | 8,367 89% | 251k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) | Sam Barlow |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 | $22.99 | 2,149 96% | 64k | $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) | Storytaco | |
 | Hello Love: 18 Again | $19.99 | 2,075 92% | 62k | $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) | 念念而忘(Echofall Studio) | |
 | Shao Song I | $14.99 | 2,671 81% | 80k | $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) | 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐 | |
 | Love is All Around 2 | $9.99 | 3,749 83% | 112k | $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) | intiny |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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