Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Idler

Of 93 developers who shipped an Idler Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×21 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $810. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 87 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 87 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 93
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $14k → $28k → $8.9k → $5.4k → $2.9k → $1.9k (still earning) → $3.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 93
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,060)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $88,126)
Developers, 2 yr 93
Released games 298
Announced 87
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Visual Novel, Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Dating Sim, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 14,652 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chill with You : Lo-Fi Story $11.99 12,215 98% 366k $4.4M (exactly $4,393,736) Nestopi Inc.
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
Chill Pulse older $4.99 4,619 95% 139k $691k (exactly $691,464) Catos Game
Yogurt! older $4.99 2,542 75% 76k $381k (exactly $380,537) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Wolf of Stock Street older $10.99 878 77% 26k $289k (exactly $289,477) 樹懶叫工作室, sloth gamer
Asbury Pines · EA $12.99 558 90% 17k $217k (exactly $217,453) Chaystar Unlimited LLC
Long Dream older $6.99 962 98% 29k $202k (exactly $201,731) WildMonkey
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
I got a millenary cat older $6.99 685 85% 21k $144k (exactly $143,644) CatBellUnion
My MILF Stepmom💋 older $6.99 644 61% 19k $135k (exactly $135,047) DuaWolf
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Lust Sisters 🔞 $14.99 215 67% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Carnality INC
Memory of Memorie : A Chill Story $11.99 245 98% 7.4k $88k (exactly $88,126) BeXide Inc.
Giant Waifu Wash Simulator 💦 $14.99 194 65% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Lewd Star
Zavod · EA $6.00 404 91% 12k $73k (exactly $72,720) Gendocik
Monster Girls: You Can't Say No 🔞 $14.99 158 91% 4.7k $71k (exactly $71,053) Lewd Star
Bonjour, Cream Inside 💦 $14.99 119 68% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
Massage With Benefits $9.99 175 84% 5.3k $52k (exactly $52,448) pasunna

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.