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Should I ship a Visual Novel Turn-Based Strategy?
Turn-Based Strategy + Visual Novel
Of 64 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1762 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 108 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.9k (exactly $5,935) |
| Top 25% | $44k (exactly $43,716) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 64 |
| Released games | 226 |
| Announced | 108 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Strategy, Visual Novel; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 18,212 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + Cold WarFair
- + RomeFair
- + LootFair
- + MiningFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + TanksFair
- + SokobanFair
- + Top-Down ShooterFair
- + SpaceFair
Comparable games
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M 
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M 
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M 
Super Robot Wars 30 2021 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Library Of Ruina | older | $29.99 | 40,605 94% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,532,318) | ProjectMoon |
| | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
| | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
| | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
 | Digimon Survive | older | $59.99 | 3,124 78% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) | HYDE, Inc. |
 | Banner of the Maid | older | $16.99 | 6,580 86% | 197k | $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) | Azure Flame Studio |
 | Persona 3 Portable | older | $19.99 | 4,728 81% | 142k | $2.8M (exactly $2,835,382) | ATLUS |
 | StarVaders | $24.99 | 3,760 97% | 113k | $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) | Pengonauts | |
 | Persona 5 Tactica | older | $59.99 | 1,526 74% | 46k | $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) | ATLUS |
 | Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening | · EA | $17.99 | 2,458 85% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) | U-Secret Studio |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic | |
 | Demonschool | $24.99 | 984 91% | 30k | $738k (exactly $737,705) | Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | Crown Gambit | $17.99 | 428 94% | 13k | $231k (exactly $230,992) | WILD WITS GAMES | |
 | Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse | $19.99 | 340 77% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | EXLIX | |
 | The Succession of Changing Kings | $9.99 | 487 86% | 15k | $146k (exactly $145,954) | KwaKwaGames | |
 | TK Punk Gold | $11.99 | 291 87% | 8.7k | $105k (exactly $104,673) | 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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