Do I ship it?

GamesCharacter CustomizationCharacter Customization + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Character Customization Visual Novel?

Character Customization + Visual Novel

Of 113 developers who shipped a Character Customization Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 191 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 191 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 191 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Character Customization + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $10k → $19k → $12k → $4.3k → $4.3k → $6.5k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Character Customization + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $42,861)
Top 5% $545k (exactly $545,486)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 375
Announced 191
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Character Customization, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 26,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 191 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Character Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  2. + Real-TimeStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  3. + Music-Based Procedural GenerationFair10 devs · median $18k · 8 announced
  4. + TransportationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  5. + MinigamesFair27 devs · median $5.7k · 34 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.2k · 13 announced
  7. + BikesFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  8. + IdlerFair210 devs · median $1.2k · 286 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair146 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  10. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $836 · 32 announced
  11. + Precision PlatformerFair103 devs · median $748 · 116 announced
  12. + TypingFair27 devs · median $539 · 38 announced

All 250 pairs on the Character Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
コイカツ! / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition older $39.99 5,731 78% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,875,481) AQURIA
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Fate/EXTELLA LINK older $49.99 4,209 92% 126k $6.3M (exactly $6,312,237) Marvelous Inc.
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris older $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
HoneySelect2Libido DX older $69.99 1,283 82% 38k $2.7M (exactly $2,693,915) ILLUSION
FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE $14.99 4,131 89% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) IT'S A TRAP
Quickie: A Love Hotel Story $19.99 2,081 95% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,247,976) Oppai Games
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD))
JASON, Coming of Age $14.99 1,213 83% 36k $545k (exactly $545,486) Coeur de cochon
Rebirth Pub $17.99 700 92% 21k $378k (exactly $377,790) Seikou Soft.
My Sexy Neighbor 🔞 $9.99 1,197 70% 36k $359k (exactly $358,741) Pocket Rocket Studio 🚀
Money for Girls: Amortized $15.00 795 98% 24k $358k (exactly $357,750) Porpentine
Fallen / Brand New World $29.99 356 94% 11k $320k (exactly $320,293) Parthia Studio LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.