Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Sandbox?
Sandbox + Visual Novel
Of 48 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.7k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×370 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 66 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.0k (exactly $2,017) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.7k (exactly $7,740) |
| Top 25% | $90k (exactly $90,080) |
| Top 5% | $232k (exactly $232,084) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 143 |
| Announced | 66 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Simulation, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,805 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
コイカツ！ / Koikatsu Party 2019 · $9.5M 
Storyteller 2023 · $3.7M 
CUSTOM ORDER MAID 3D2 It's a Night Magic 2019 · $1.7M 
Man of the House 2019 · $1.7M 
Summer in Mara 2020 · $878k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | コイカツ！ / Koikatsu Party | older | $59.99 | 5,298 91% | 159k | $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) | ILLUSION |
| | Storyteller | older | $14.99 | 8,169 88% | 245k | $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) | Daniel Benmergui |
| | CUSTOM ORDER MAID 3D2 It's a Night Magic | older | $40.00 | 1,438 82% | 43k | $1.7M (exactly $1,725,600) | KISS |
| | Man of the House | older | $19.99 | 2,829 89% | 85k | $1.7M (exactly $1,696,551) | Faerin Games |
| | Summer in Mara | older | $19.99 | 1,464 75% | 44k | $878k (exactly $877,961) | Chibig |
 | The Imperial Gatekeeper | older | $12.99 | 2,129 79% | 64k | $830k (exactly $829,671) | Tengsten |
 | MILFs of Sunville - Season 1 | older | $9.99 | 2,690 90% | 81k | $806k (exactly $806,193) | L7team |
 | Love and Sex: Second Base | older | $19.99 | 1,340 91% | 40k | $804k (exactly $803,598) | Andrealphus Games |
 | The Censor DX Edition | $17.99 | 1,467 82% | 44k | $792k (exactly $791,740) | Tiramisu, Big S Studio | |
 | Lust Academy - Season 1 | older | $14.99 | 1,721 83% | 52k | $774k (exactly $773,934) | Bear in the Night |
 | Shattered Minds | · EA | $12.99 | 1,507 91% | 45k | $587k (exactly $587,278) | eXtasy Games |
 | Midnight Sin | $19.99 | 387 82% | 12k | $232k (exactly $232,084) | Faerin Games | |
 | NTRaholic SS | $14.99 | 508 62% | 15k | $228k (exactly $228,448) | Tiramisu, Big S Studio | |
 | MMA Life Simulator | $16.99 | 435 80% | 13k | $222k (exactly $221,719) | BNS7 | |
 | Lust's Cupid | $19.99 | 313 81% | 9.4k | $188k (exactly $187,706) | Dinotonte | |
 | The Lust City 2 | $15.99 | 315 79% | 9.5k | $151k (exactly $151,106) | Candylight Studio | |
 | Midori no Kaori | $9.99 | 464 94% | 14k | $139k (exactly $139,061) | TheLaba | |
 | Sinners Landing | $19.99 | 180 86% | 5.4k | $108k (exactly $107,946) | Flexible Media | |
 | Lyndaria: Lust Adventure | $14.99 | 229 76% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $102,981) | Lustration Team |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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