Do I ship it?

Games › Deckbuilding › Deckbuilding + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Visual Novel

Of 36 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $26k, ×55 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2793 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 64 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 54.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 64 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $14k → $32k → $9.7k → $204k → $19k → $13k (still earning) → $55k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $26k (exactly $25,975)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $110,956)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 89
Announced 64
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Card Game, Strategy
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,385 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $26k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 40 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution 2020 · $4.7M I Was a Teenage Exocolonist 2022 · $3.3M StarVaders 2025 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist : Link Evolution older $39.99 3,905 82% 117k $4.7M (exactly $4,684,828) Other Ocean Emeryville
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Take Me To The Dungeon!! older $10.99 3,895 93% 117k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,182) Hanabi Fuusen
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Disillusion ST $10.99 524 96% 16k $173k (exactly $172,763) Disillusion Dev, Disillusion Dev
Kumitantei: Old-School Slaughter $14.99 314 90% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Mango Factory
Wander Stars $24.99 148 92% 4.4k $111k (exactly $110,956) Paper Castle Games
Sinners Landing $19.99 180 86% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Flexible Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.