Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Visual Novel

Of 44 developers who shipped a Visual Novel 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 39 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 39 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $240 → $1.5k → $750 → $480 → $599 → $8.6k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,311)
Top 5% $323k (exactly $323,106)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 154
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Dating Sim, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,962 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $720, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  7. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  8. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  9. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  10. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced
  12. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 19 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
HoneySelect2Libido DX older $69.99 1,283 82% 38k $2.7M (exactly $2,693,915) ILLUSION
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
BUNNY GARDEN older $24.99 1,230 92% 37k $922k (exactly $922,131) qureate
Winion Virus $10.99 980 94% 29k $323k (exactly $323,106) Dawntown Studio
Rabbit Burn older $14.99 680 89% 20k $306k (exactly $305,796) Bio Sapiens
Flee, My Elven Ninja! 3D $14.99 347 85% 10k $156k (exactly $156,046) Barance Studio
MERRY BUNNY GARDEN $19.99 232 81% 7.0k $139k (exactly $139,130) qureate
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Empire City $24.99 105 76% 3.2k $79k (exactly $78,718) Cortopia Studios
Sex Wishes 🔮 $14.99 145 68% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Campus Fantasy $9.99 208 69% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) 聂宇星
Love Mansion $10.99 184 88% 5.5k $61k (exactly $60,665) Tsunmayo
Fate and Life: The Mystery of Vaulinhorn $13.99 139 64% 4.2k $58k (exactly $58,338) Celestial Novel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.