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Should I ship a Visual Novel Turn-Based Combat game?
Turn-Based Combat + Visual Novel
Of 129 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1454 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 167 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $898 (exactly $898) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) |
| Top 25% | $46k (exactly $46,022) |
| Top 5% | $690k (exactly $690,474) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 129 |
| Released games | 371 |
| Announced | 167 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Combat, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, JRPG
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 22,114 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + RomeFair
- + CookingFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DiceFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SolitaireFair
Comparable games
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M 
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M 
Volcano Princess 2023 · $15M 
Super Robot Wars 30 2021 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Library Of Ruina | older | $29.99 | 40,605 94% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,532,318) | ProjectMoon |
| | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
| | Volcano Princess | older | $10.99 | 45,019 97% | 1.4M | $15M (exactly $14,842,764) | 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher |
| | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
 | Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth1 | older | $14.99 | 10,135 94% | 304k | $4.6M (exactly $4,557,710) | IDEA FACTORY Co., Ltd., COMPILE HEART C… (IDEA FACTORY Co., Ltd., COMPILE HEART Co., Ltd., FELISTELLA Co., Ltd.) |
 | Soul Hackers 2 | older | $59.99 | 2,300 65% | 69k | $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) | ATLUS |
 | The Thaumaturge | older | $34.99 | 3,888 81% | 117k | $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) | Fool's Theory |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Banner of the Maid | older | $16.99 | 6,580 86% | 197k | $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) | Azure Flame Studio |
 | StarVaders | $24.99 | 3,760 97% | 113k | $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) | Pengonauts | |
 | Aurelia | $19.99 | 2,253 94% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) | MirthalGames | |
 | Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening | · EA | $17.99 | 2,458 85% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) | U-Secret Studio |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic | |
 | Demonschool | $24.99 | 984 91% | 30k | $738k (exactly $737,705) | Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Half-Demon Shinobi | $10.99 | 1,242 89% | 37k | $409k (exactly $409,487) | 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機 | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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