Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day game?

Modern

Of 887 developers who shipped a Modern-Day game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,243 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×818 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,243 games are announced against 523 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,243 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 887
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $3.6k → $2.0k → $3.0k → $2.0k → $2.5k → $1.0k (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 887
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 5% $389k (exactly $388,606)
Developers, 2 yr 887
Released games 2,656
Announced 1,243
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 680,544 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 514 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,243 games are announced against 523 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Modern

126 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. RPG + Modern Poor odds $3.8k 167 devs
  2. JRPG + Modern Poor odds $3.6k 37 devs
  3. Visual Novel + Modern Poor odds $3.5k 199 devs
  4. Real Time Tactics + Modern Poor odds $3.3k 30 devs
  5. Top-Down Shooter + Modern Poor odds $3.3k 13 devs
  6. Open World + Modern Poor odds $3.2k 57 devs
  7. Parkour + Modern Poor odds $3.1k 10 devs
  8. Simulation + Modern Poor odds $3.0k 379 devs
  9. Cooking + Modern Poor odds $3.0k 23 devs
  10. Tactical + Modern Poor odds $2.9k 74 devs
  11. Choices Matter + Modern Poor odds $2.7k 159 devs
  12. Resource Management + Modern Poor odds $2.7k 104 devs
  13. Strategy RPG + Modern Poor odds $2.7k 25 devs
  14. Otome + Modern Poor odds $2.7k 11 devs
  15. Interactive Fiction + Modern Poor odds $2.5k 106 devs
  16. Party-Based RPG + Modern Poor odds $2.4k 16 devs
  17. 6DOF + Modern Poor odds $2.4k 13 devs
  18. Multiple Endings + Modern Poor odds $2.3k 163 devs
  19. Exploration + Modern Poor odds $2.3k 152 devs
  20. Level Editor + Modern Poor odds $2.2k 16 devs
  21. Loot + Modern Poor odds $2.2k 15 devs
  22. Hidden Object + Modern Poor odds $2.2k 47 devs
  23. Choose Your Own Adventure + Modern Poor odds $2.1k 108 devs
  24. Political Sim + Modern Poor odds $1.9k 19 devs
  25. Diplomacy + Modern Poor odds $1.9k 13 devs
  26. PvE + Modern Poor odds $1.8k 66 devs
  27. Crafting + Modern Poor odds $1.8k 43 devs
  28. Adventure + Modern Poor odds $1.7k 290 devs
  29. Turn-Based Combat + Modern Poor odds $1.6k 44 devs
  30. Investigation + Modern Poor odds $1.6k 48 devs
  31. Dungeon Crawler + Modern Poor odds $1.5k 13 devs
  32. Character Customization + Modern Poor odds $1.5k 61 devs
  33. Turn-Based Strategy + Modern Poor odds $1.3k 34 devs
  34. Quick-Time Events + Modern Poor odds $1.3k 13 devs
  35. Action + Modern Poor odds $1.3k 214 devs
  36. Third-Person Shooter + Modern Poor odds $1.3k 24 devs
  37. Shoot 'Em Up + Modern Poor odds $1.3k 18 devs
  38. Strategy + Modern Poor odds $1.2k 193 devs
  39. Action-Adventure + Modern Poor odds $1.2k 73 devs
  40. Deckbuilding + Modern Poor odds $1.2k 26 devs
  41. Physics + Modern Poor odds $1.2k 84 devs
  42. Turn-Based Tactics + Modern Poor odds $1.1k 48 devs
  43. Card Game + Modern Poor odds $1.1k 32 devs
  44. Roguelite + Modern Poor odds $1.1k 45 devs
  45. Point & Click + Modern Poor odds $1.0k 63 devs
  46. Action RPG + Modern Poor odds $1.0k 38 devs
  47. Action RTS + Modern Poor odds $989 13 devs
  48. Combat + Modern Poor odds $900 101 devs
  49. Precision Platformer + Modern Poor odds $899 12 devs
  50. Tanks + Modern Poor odds $899 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M Ready or Not 2023 · $398M Resident Evil Requiem 2026 · $225M Squad 2020 · $217M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Cities: Skylines older $29.99 220,465 92% 6.6M $198M (exactly $198,352,360) Colossal Order
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® older $59.99 43,229 79% 1.3M $78M (exactly $77,799,231) Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software)
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.