Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Open World game?

Open World + Modern

Of 57 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $830; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×6883 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 101 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 101 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $220k → $41k → $3.0k → $11k → $8.1k → $1.8k → $3.2k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $824 (exactly $824)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $57,286)
Top 5% $10M (exactly $10,310,721)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 172
Announced 101
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Life Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $25.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 111,800 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $830, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $57k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $830. 7 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III 2023 · $43M Big Ambitions 2026 · $11M Car For Sale Simulator 2024 · $10M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III older $69.99 20,701 47% 621k $43M (exactly $43,465,890) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware)
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown older $49.99 6,536 38% 196k $9.8M (exactly $9,802,039) KT Racing
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead older $19.99 16,198 92% 486k $9.7M (exactly $9,713,941) Bohemia Interactive
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Medal of Honor™ older $19.99 7,021 82% 211k $4.2M (exactly $4,210,494) Electronic Arts
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
Car Dealership Simulator 2 · EA $14.99 2,374 69% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) Quadfix Games
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
Under The Island $19.99 446 92% 13k $267k (exactly $267,466) Slime King Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.