Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Modern

Of 44 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1737 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 59 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 59 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $4.7k → $684 → $2.5k → $2.4k (still earning) → $538 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $825k (exactly $825,187)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 89
Announced 59
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, JRPG, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 22,575 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter 2025 · $8.4M Wicked Seed 2026 · $825k Combat Mission Black Sea 2021 · $759k Long Gone Days 2023 · $351k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Combat Mission Black Sea older $59.99 422 81% 13k $759k (exactly $759,473) Battlefront
Long Gone Days older $24.99 468 88% 14k $351k (exactly $350,860) This I Dreamt
Combat Mission Cold War older $59.99 156 60% 4.7k $281k (exactly $280,753) Battlefront
High School Odyssey older $8.99 591 92% 18k $159k (exactly $159,393) 傲雪小组
Yomi 2 $19.99 104 92% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) Sirlin Games
Dragon Spirits 2 older $13.99 137 84% 4.1k $57k (exactly $57,499) FHNBHJ
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Alisa's Grimoire $16.99 77 87% 2.3k $39k (exactly $39,247) Circle Kurasuke Warehouse
BURNED HORIZONS · EA $44.99 29 34% 870 $39k (exactly $39,141) BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO
Bakahazard 1+2 $3.99 231 99% 6.9k $28k (exactly $27,651) 流比奈梦工厂
SkullX: Aibohphobia $9.99 76 90% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) SkullX, DSTRCT Creatives
Makai Agito $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Gumi Bytes, Dani Sugimoto-Lee

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.