Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Modern

Only 16 developers shipped a Modern-Day Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Digimon Story Time Stranger, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $33M, ×52977 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $1.2k → $22k → $6.3k → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,777)
Top 5% $33M (exactly $33,269,746)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 43
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Dark, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 26,576 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $33M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Long Gone Days older $24.99 468 88% 14k $351k (exactly $350,860) This I Dreamt
Terrain of Magical Expertise older $19.99 106 83% 3.2k $64k (exactly $63,568) NEO-C Productions L.L.C
Girlfriend Rescue older $9.99 138 81% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Aldorlea Games
RPG Stories · EA older $29.99 36 77% 1.1k $32k (exactly $32,389) Brave Alice Games
SkullX: Aibohphobia $9.99 76 90% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) SkullX, DSTRCT Creatives
Makai Agito $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Gumi Bytes, Dani Sugimoto-Lee
Euclyca older $24.99 27 70% 810 $20k (exactly $20,242) Team Syukino
中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 $5.99 43 60% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Kwing works
Silver Daze $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Sawyer Friend
Cubenen Gardens: Befriend $8.99 9 88% 270 $2.4k (exactly $2,427) TheGamedawg
NECRONOMICAT $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) GROOVY GORY GAMES
Metaneurosis $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Lazy Dev Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.