Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Investigation game?

Investigation + Modern

Of 48 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×471 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 73 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 73 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $41k → $898 → $2.2k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $505 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,578)
Top 5% $224k (exactly $223,688)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 114
Announced 73
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Point & Click, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 7,941 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
Scene Investigators older $24.99 961 74% 29k $720k (exactly $720,462) EQ Studios
Nucleares older $14.99 1,121 84% 34k $504k (exactly $504,114) Iván Marcelo Pretti
Demons' Timeline $10.99 1,046 97% 31k $345k (exactly $344,866) DigitalCats
Autobahn Police Simulator 3 older $29.99 374 58% 11k $336k (exactly $336,488) Z-Software
The Solitaire Conspiracy older $11.99 742 89% 22k $267k (exactly $266,897) Bithell Games
Tiny Room Stories: Town Mystery older $9.99 812 86% 24k $243k (exactly $243,356) Kiary Games
Alex Hill: Whispers at White Oak Inn $19.99 373 93% 11k $224k (exactly $223,688) hannahontrek
A Case of Fraud $8.99 540 97% 16k $146k (exactly $145,638) Hesperus Games
Lavender Quartz 境界秤動 $11.99 300 95% 9.0k $108k (exactly $107,910) Edanoue, Inc.
Phoenix Springs $14.99 228 85% 6.8k $103k (exactly $102,532) Calligram Studio
Airport X-Ray Simulator · EA $12.99 253 80% 7.6k $99k (exactly $98,594) Rainbow Lab
Decide 4 God $29.99 49 93% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) Miracle Moon
BrokenLore: DON’T LIE $15.99 74 86% 2.2k $35k (exactly $35,498) Serafini Productions
Jaden Williams' The Stalking Stairs $2.99 343 88% 10k $31k (exactly $30,767) Jaden Williams

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.