Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Modern

Of 48 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $64k, ×103 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 55 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 55 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $7.7k → $1.4k → $1.2k → $989 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,498)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $64,789)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 99
Announced 55
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, JRPG
Price point
$7.49 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $7.49.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 5,153 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. Nearly all of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Combat Mission Black Sea older $59.99 422 81% 13k $759k (exactly $759,473) Battlefront
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
Combat Mission Cold War older $59.99 156 60% 4.7k $281k (exactly $280,753) Battlefront
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Laptop Tycoon older $7.99 400 74% 12k $96k (exactly $95,880) Roastery Games
Lock 'n Load Tactical Digital: Core Game · EA older $4.99 566 82% 17k $85k (exactly $84,730) Lock 'n Load Publishing
Monopoly Madness older $29.99 94 43% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Engine Software, Ubisoft
Legend of Homebody older $5.99 387 82% 12k $70k (exactly $69,544) 疯王子
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
BURNED HORIZONS · EA $44.99 29 34% 870 $39k (exactly $39,141) BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO
Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation $15.99 33 84% 990 $16k (exactly $15,830) 夜与潜伏者
Pegs X Stickers $5.99 65 87% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,680) Mister Morris Games, Tyler Ray Games
Demon Corporation: Onboarding $6.99 42 95% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) A Shrine of Ludens
Mizuki: Demon-Slaying Housewife $14.99 19 42% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) tarobaumu
中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 $5.99 43 60% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Kwing works

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.