Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Modern

Of 106 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 175 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×425 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 175 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 175 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 106
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $3.8k → $3.1k → $1.2k → $3.6k → $2.7k → $4.7k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 106
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,174)
Top 5% $202k (exactly $202,106)
Developers, 2 yr 106
Released games 263
Announced 175
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 53,653 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 175 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Green Hell VR older $19.99 1,143 57% 34k $685k (exactly $685,457) Incuvo
KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- $54.99 403 78% 12k $665k (exactly $664,829) Nihon Falcom
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Paradise older $19.99 561 90% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) PIL/SLASH
Bare Witness older $12.99 698 91% 21k $272k (exactly $272,011) AlterWorlds
Breaker of fatalism $10.99 613 88% 18k $202k (exactly $202,106) showplay entertainment
Enjoy Amoy&Sisters $4.99 855 96% 26k $128k (exactly $127,994) Choice Studio
这个CEO我当定了! $7.99 462 82% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) 叁石肆两
Afterlove EP $19.99 184 90% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Pikselnesia
Content King $11.99 293 95% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Usurper Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.