Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Strategy game?

Strategy + Modern

Of 193 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 274 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×888 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 274 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 274 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 193
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $6.0k → $4.1k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.8k → $1.3k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 193
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,491)
Top 5% $557k (exactly $557,442)
Developers, 2 yr 193
Released games 469
Announced 274
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 95,542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 274 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Cities: Skylines older $29.99 220,465 92% 6.6M $198M (exactly $198,352,360) Colossal Order
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead older $19.99 16,198 92% 486k $9.7M (exactly $9,713,941) Bohemia Interactive
Call to Arms older $14.99 17,431 80% 523k $7.8M (exactly $7,838,721) Digitalmindsoft
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
911 Operator older $14.99 14,416 89% 432k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,875) Jutsu Games
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Sex, Secrets & Used Tech $16.99 1,291 85% 39k $658k (exactly $658,023) WorkNite Games, 78Games
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.