Should I ship a Modern-Day JRPG?
JRPG + Modern
Of 37 developers who shipped a Modern-Day JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $8.3M, ×13326 the market median. Revenue is up 980% on the market; 42 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,565) |
| Top 25% | $30k (exactly $30,007) |
| Top 5% | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 37 |
| Released games | 102 |
| Announced | 42 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 980% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 3D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 21,980 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M 
ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M 
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter 2025 · $8.4M 
NEO: The World Ends with You 2022 · $1.7M 
LIVE A LIVE 2023 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Digimon Story Time Stranger | $69.99 | 15,845 89% | 475k | $33M (exactly $33,269,746) | Media.Vision Inc. | |
| | ASTLIBRA Revision | older | $24.99 | 30,262 95% | 908k | $23M (exactly $22,687,421) | KEIZO |
| | Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter | $59.99 | 4,650 95% | 140k | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) | Nihon Falcom | |
| | NEO: The World Ends with You | older | $59.99 | 941 91% | 28k | $1.7M (exactly $1,693,518) | Square Enix, h.a.n.d. |
| | LIVE A LIVE | older | $49.99 | 785 85% | 24k | $1.2M (exactly $1,177,264) | Square Enix, historia Inc. |
 | KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- | $54.99 | 403 78% | 12k | $665k (exactly $664,829) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | 月球坠落时 Moon Fall | older | $14.99 | 982 87% | 29k | $442k (exactly $441,605) | Xihe Animation, JasminsSummer Project |
 | Long Gone Days | older | $24.99 | 468 88% | 14k | $351k (exactly $350,860) | This I Dreamt |
 | VARLET | $59.99 | 121 47% | 3.6k | $218k (exactly $217,764) | FURYU CORPORATION | |
 | High School Odyssey | older | $8.99 | 591 92% | 18k | $159k (exactly $159,393) | 傲雪小组 |
 | Black Gold - Shining Town | $13.99 | 255 80% | 7.7k | $107k (exactly $107,024) | Morexingame | |
 | Let's Start Managing the Sexual Relief Department! | $7.99 | 315 73% | 9.5k | $76k (exactly $75,506) | むくどりGames | |
 | Echoes of the Town | $14.99 | 122 86% | 3.7k | $55k (exactly $54,863) | Taizai Games | |
 | A summer in Oneeshota Town | $14.99 | 103 63% | 3.1k | $46k (exactly $46,319) | アイオライト | |
 | Yokai: Lust Secret 🪭 | $14.99 | 89 83% | 2.7k | $40k (exactly $40,023) | Lewd Star | |
 | Alisa's Grimoire | $16.99 | 77 87% | 2.3k | $39k (exactly $39,247) | Circle Kurasuke Warehouse |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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