Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Modern

Of 34 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $64k, ×103 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 51 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $32k → $1.2k → $2.9k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $64,789)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 86
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 809 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Combat Mission Black Sea older $59.99 422 81% 13k $759k (exactly $759,473) Battlefront
Realpolitiks II older $24.99 537 46% 16k $403k (exactly $402,589) Jujubee S.A.
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
Combat Mission Cold War older $59.99 156 60% 4.7k $281k (exactly $280,753) Battlefront
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
大千世界 older $3.99 2,289 86% 69k $274k (exactly $273,993) 滑稽工作室
The Political Machine 2024 older $19.99 255 74% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) Stardock Entertainment
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
Lock 'n Load Tactical Digital: Core Game · EA older $4.99 566 82% 17k $85k (exactly $84,730) Lock 'n Load Publishing
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
Yomi 2 $19.99 104 92% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) Sirlin Games
Lunchbreak Tactics $14.99 124 76% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Borealys Games
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Makai Agito $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Gumi Bytes, Dani Sugimoto-Lee
Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation $15.99 33 84% 990 $16k (exactly $15,830) 夜与潜伏者
Games Tycoon $5.99 39 53% 1.2k $7.0k (exactly $7,008) Insignis Games
okey.gg · EA $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) yilmaz.games
Sim: Heavyweight Boxing Champion $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Jfsimgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.