Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day PvE game?

PvE + Modern

Of 66 developers who shipped a Modern-Day PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1314 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 134 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 134 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $3.0k → $719 → $7.2k → $449 → $3.3k → $599 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $330 (exactly $330)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,390)
Top 5% $825k (exactly $825,187)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 183
Announced 134
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, PvP
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 13,983 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Squad 2020 · $217M Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III 2023 · $43M Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE 2025 · $9.2M Regiments 2022 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III older $69.99 20,701 47% 621k $43M (exactly $43,465,890) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware)
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days older $69.99 1,186 76% 36k $2.5M (exactly $2,490,244) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Into The Flames older $19.99 1,548 80% 46k $928k (exactly $928,336) Fully Involved Game Studios
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Alpha Response · EA $19.99 788 77% 24k $473k (exactly $472,564) Ultimo Ratio Games
Zero Caliber 2 Remastered $24.99 433 79% 13k $325k (exactly $324,620) XREAL Games
Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends $19.99 168 72% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Huracan Studio
Truxton Extreme $24.99 93 95% 2.8k $70k (exactly $69,722) Tatsujin
Reaper Actual · EA $19.99 109 42% 3.3k $65k (exactly $65,367) Distinct Possibility Studios, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.