Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Modern
Should I ship a Modern-Day Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Modern
Of 199 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 296 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×7.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×328 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 296 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $19,416) |
| Top 5% | $156k (exactly $155,844) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 199 |
| Released games | 694 |
| Announced | 296 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Modern
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Choices Matter, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 55,416 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 147 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 296 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA 2021 · $14M 
Revenge on gold diggers 2025 · $9.8M 
Acting Lessons 2019 · $1.5M 
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 2025 · $1.3M 
Love and Sex: Second Base 2023 · $804k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA | older | $49.99 | 9,130 88% | 274k | $14M (exactly $13,692,261) | FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc.,… (FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., TAMSOFT CORPORATION, GameLoop Inc.) |
| | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
| | Acting Lessons | older | $9.99 | 5,050 95% | 152k | $1.5M (exactly $1,513,485) | Dr PinkCake |
| | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 | $69.99 | 631 67% | 19k | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. | |
| | Love and Sex: Second Base | older | $19.99 | 1,340 91% | 40k | $804k (exactly $803,598) | Andrealphus Games |
 | MILF's Plaza | older | $14.99 | 1,585 73% | 48k | $713k (exactly $712,774) | Texic |
 | Sex, Secrets & Used Tech | $16.99 | 1,291 85% | 39k | $658k (exactly $658,023) | WorkNite Games, 78Games | |
 | Tales from Toyotoki: Arrival of the Witch (The witch of the Ihanashi) | older | $24.98 | 874 95% | 26k | $655k (exactly $654,976) | Fragaria |
 | 极速营救 | $9.99 | 1,860 86% | 56k | $557k (exactly $557,442) | 优映文化, 想象颗粒 | |
 | 月球坠落时 Moon Fall | older | $14.99 | 982 87% | 29k | $442k (exactly $441,605) | Xihe Animation, JasminsSummer Project |
 | 我打不过漂亮的她们 | $10.99 | 1,111 95% | 33k | $366k (exactly $366,297) | 想象颗粒 | |
 | Demons' Timeline | $10.99 | 1,046 97% | 31k | $345k (exactly $344,866) | DigitalCats | |
 | Blood Money: Lethal Eden | $8.99 | 1,262 91% | 38k | $340k (exactly $340,361) | 碧火互娱 | |
 | Seedsow Lullaby | $20.99 | 472 97% | 14k | $297k (exactly $297,218) | iMel Inc. | |
 | Breaker of fatalism | $10.99 | 613 88% | 18k | $202k (exactly $202,106) | showplay entertainment | |
 | Exposed Livestream | $9.99 | 520 81% | 16k | $156k (exactly $155,844) | Kumada Gaon |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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