Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Action game?

Action + Modern

Of 214 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 378 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2558 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 378 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 378 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 214
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.7k → $718 → $4.5k → $1.5k → $1.0k → $718 (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 214
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,669)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Developers, 2 yr 214
Released games 697
Announced 378
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Shooter, FPS
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 536,366 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 117 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 378 games are announced against 117 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Cities: Skylines older $29.99 220,465 92% 6.6M $198M (exactly $198,352,360) Colossal Order
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® older $59.99 43,229 79% 1.3M $78M (exactly $77,799,231) Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software)
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® II older $69.99 26,543 45% 796k $56M (exactly $55,732,337) Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox,… (Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Demonware, Toys for Bob)
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Onward $24.99 8,621 69% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) Downpour Interactive
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.