Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Combat game?

Combat + Modern

Of 101 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 175 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1121 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 175 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 175 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.5k → $1.8k → $3.7k → $807 → $900 → $719 (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $704k (exactly $703,683)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 288
Announced 175
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Tactical, Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 367,428 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $900, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 175 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M Ready or Not 2023 · $398M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III 2023 · $43M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III older $69.99 20,701 47% 621k $43M (exactly $43,465,890) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware)
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Midnight Fight Express older $19.99 1,981 90% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,006) Jacob Dzwinel
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Alpha Response · EA $19.99 788 77% 24k $473k (exactly $472,564) Ultimo Ratio Games
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.