Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Modern

Of 25 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×888 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 29 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 29 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $2.7k → $4.6k → $3.8k → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,699)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $557k (exactly $557,442)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 43
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Emotional, Third Person, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 50,204 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
大千世界 older $3.99 2,289 86% 69k $274k (exactly $273,993) 滑稽工作室
High School Odyssey older $8.99 591 92% 18k $159k (exactly $159,393) 傲雪小组
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
中年失业模拟器When a man lose his job older $7.99 344 77% 10k $82k (exactly $82,457) Kwing works
Mega Mall Story older $8.99 302 94% 9.1k $81k (exactly $81,449) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
The Next Journey Of Life $12.99 147 63% 4.4k $57k (exactly $57,286) FOREVER GAME
Political Arena · EA $14.99 69 73% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Wayside Press
Mushroom Island Work Diary $14.99 42 47% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) イルカのヒレ
Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation $15.99 33 84% 990 $16k (exactly $15,830) 夜与潜伏者
中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 $5.99 43 60% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Kwing works
Schoolgirl Card Pull Simulator $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) Violet Soft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.