Do I ship it?

Games › Otome › Otome + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Otome?

Otome + Modern

Only 11 developers shipped a Modern-Day Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Our Red String, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is up 545% on the market; 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 545% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $2.7k → $478 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,985)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,360)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 33
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 545% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Otome
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 334 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

明星志願2 2022 · $98k Our Red String 2026 · EA · $80k Sparkling Memories 2022 · $32k 香恋Ready！ 2025 · $19k A Killer Chat! Christmas 2025 · $15k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
明星志願2 older $7.99 410 83% 12k $98k (exactly $98,277) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Our Red String · EA $19.99 134 97% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Eva Kiss
Sparkling Memories older $7.99 135 87% 4.1k $32k (exactly $32,360) 柿树文化
香恋Ready！ $9.99 62 87% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) 芙气满满制作组
A Killer Chat! Christmas $9.99 50 100% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) rosesrot
Never Forget Me older $14.99 25 60% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Winter Wolves
Espresso For The Demon older $8.99 35 91% 1.1k $9.4k (exactly $9,440) Vorobushek
Chirality older $5.99 48 81% 1.4k $8.6k (exactly $8,626) 有月工作室, 冬蟲夏草, BlueBerry 藍莓社
My Forged Wedding older $29.99 8 100% 240 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) UNICO INC.
幻觉病理 $5.99 36 75% 1.1k $6.5k (exactly $6,469) 水仙肉桂
Light de deux $5.00 24 100% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,600) Shreibikus
Liquor Love Lady $14.99 6 66% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) AFTERTIME.INC, Bigtail Village
Red Spider: Vengeance Remastered donation ver. $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) studio wasp
Farewell, we see each other for the last time..... $1.99 8 75% 240 $478 (exactly $478) Drimmar
이세계 바텐더 $13.99 1 0% 30 $420 (exactly $420) StudioFivecore
City Lights, Old Flames $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Sugar Moon Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.