Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Modern

Only 13 developers shipped a Modern-Day Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Yet Another Zombie Survivors, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×6.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $6.3M, ×13371 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $3.0k → $119 → $14k → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,891)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 43
Announced 19
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 14,975 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $6.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  11. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds135 devs · median $3.1k · 207 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Midnight Fight Express older $19.99 1,981 90% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,006) Jacob Dzwinel
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Truxton Extreme $24.99 93 95% 2.8k $70k (exactly $69,722) Tatsujin
Typing Break $8.99 96 80% 2.9k $26k (exactly $25,891) Tholus
Seven Cities · EA $14.99 32 87% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) IMV Studio
Status One $14.99 30 73% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) LastCall Studio
Practical Shooting Simulator · EA older $29.99 8 87% 240 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) 269th lab games softworks
Dead City · EA older $6.99 29 58% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) Novalink
The War Enders: First Strike · EA older $14.99 9 88% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Crystal Heart's Studio
Territorial Conquest $4.99 22 50% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Uğur CAN
Final Hunter $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Game Matrix
Super Firefighter $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) William Giguère
Soul Machine $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Zanarka Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.