Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Tactical game?

Tactical + Modern

Of 74 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×10292 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 114 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 114 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $3.6k → $628 → $2.7k → $1.3k → $3.0k → $6.3k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,892)
Top 5% $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 202
Announced 114
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 394,457 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® older $59.99 43,229 79% 1.3M $78M (exactly $77,799,231) Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software)
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® II older $69.99 26,543 45% 796k $56M (exactly $55,732,337) Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox,… (Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Demonware, Toys for Bob)
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III older $69.99 20,701 47% 621k $43M (exactly $43,465,890) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware)
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Onward $24.99 8,621 69% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) Downpour Interactive
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Alpha Response · EA $19.99 788 77% 24k $473k (exactly $472,564) Ultimo Ratio Games
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.