Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Crafting game?

Crafting + Modern

Of 43 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×215 the market median. Revenue is up 725% on the market; 62 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 725% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $19k → $987 → $5.4k → $748 → $2.7k → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Top 5% $135k (exactly $134,880)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 89
Announced 62
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 725% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Building
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 2,260 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
InfraSpace older $24.99 1,638 82% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,009) Dionic Software
Green Hell VR older $19.99 1,143 57% 34k $685k (exactly $685,457) Incuvo
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
Brewpub Simulator older $17.99 521 56% 16k $281k (exactly $281,184) Star Drifters
Mad Smartphone Tycoon older $11.99 577 71% 17k $208k (exactly $207,547) Miradil
Next Space Rebels older $19.99 327 84% 9.8k $196k (exactly $196,102) Studio Floris Kaayk
Rancher: A new life · EA $19.99 265 64% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Sim Farm S.A.
Cafe Master Story older $12.99 378 96% 11k $147k (exactly $147,307) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Offroad Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 238 71% 7.1k $143k (exactly $142,729) Image Power S.A., GameFormatic S.A.
Sandwich Simulator $4.99 901 77% 27k $135k (exactly $134,880) FiftyEight Studios
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
Ship of Heroes $29.99 91 27% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Heroic Games Corporation
Graffism VR - Graffiti Simulator · EA $24.99 98 86% 2.9k $73k (exactly $73,471) VRiteLabs
Bonjour, Cream Inside 💦 $14.99 119 68% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
Seven Cities · EA $14.99 32 87% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) IMV Studio
Lost Paws $19.99 18 94% 540 $11k (exactly $10,795) Dungeoneering Studios
Bober Constructions $9.99 30 70% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Simplicity Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.