Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Modern

Only 13 developers shipped a Modern-Day Diplomacy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×302 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $989 (exactly $989)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,743)
Top 5% $190k (exactly $189,674)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 25
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Grand Strategy, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 579 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Power & Revolution 2020 Edition older $49.99 769 63% 23k $1.2M (exactly $1,153,269) Eversim
Highrise City older $29.99 1,240 77% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,628) Fourexo Entertainment
First Strike older $11.99 1,916 75% 57k $689k (exactly $689,185) Blindflug Studios AG
Supreme Ruler 2030 older $29.99 532 65% 16k $479k (exactly $478,640) BattleGoat Studios
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
AfterWar $34.99 139 72% 4.2k $146k (exactly $145,908) Dmytro Lumen
Trade Conquest $14.99 75 69% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) GrandPaw Games
Arms Race - TCWE older $9.99 60 68% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,982) Alina Digital
Taxer Inc · EA older $7.99 59 38% 1.8k $14k (exactly $14,142) Hamsters Gaming
Irbet Tong $6.99 56 100% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,743) Kyhynngy Oyuur
Territorial Conquest $4.99 22 50% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Uğur CAN
World Diplomat $29.99 3 33% 90 $2.7k (exactly $2,699) iGindisGames
MA 2 – President Simulator $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Oxiwyle Inc.
Age of Resistance $4.49 11 100% 330 $1.5k (exactly $1,482) Luis Humberto
Eon Empires $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Aeonforge Studio
SIM Election USA $10.99 3 66% 90 $989 (exactly $989) SunsixStudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.