Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Modern

Of 108 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×222 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 146 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 146 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 108
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $4.9k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $3.4k → $15k → $1.6k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 108
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,985)
Top 5% $105k (exactly $105,392)
Developers, 2 yr 108
Released games 358
Announced 146
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Visual Novel, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 51,282 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Tales from Toyotoki: Arrival of the Witch (The witch of the Ihanashi) older $24.98 874 95% 26k $655k (exactly $654,976) Fragaria
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
Paradise older $19.99 561 90% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) PIL/SLASH
ウーマンコミュニケーション older $12.99 793 98% 24k $309k (exactly $309,032) YAMADA
Tokyo School Life older $14.99 619 92% 19k $278k (exactly $278,364) M2 Co.,LTD
Majikoi! Love Me Seriously! older $34.99 212 95% 6.4k $223k (exactly $222,536) Minato Soft
Summer Crush older $11.99 486 79% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Wet n' Juicy Games
Hadaka Shitsuji - Naked Butlers older $34.99 135 85% 4.1k $142k (exactly $141,710) MADA Labo
Don’t Tell Mom: I Fed My Stepsister 💦😳 $14.99 280 62% 8.4k $126k (exactly $125,916) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
这个CEO我当定了! $7.99 462 82% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) 叁石肆两
Content King $11.99 293 95% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Usurper Studios
Futa Zone: Lewd Control 🍒 $14.99 186 66% 5.6k $84k (exactly $83,644) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Our Red String · EA $19.99 134 97% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Eva Kiss
Sex & Coffee ☕️🤎 $14.99 174 76% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Carnality INC
Grand Tits Adventure [18+] $14.99 172 72% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Carnality INC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.