Should I ship a Modern-Day RPG?
RPG + Modern
Of 167 developers who shipped a Modern-Day RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 265 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×1462 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 265 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $570 (exactly $570) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,838) |
| Top 25% | $35k (exactly $34,765) |
| Top 5% | $918k (exactly $918,382) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 167 |
| Released games | 427 |
| Announced | 265 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Simulation, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 99,808 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $570. 7 in 10 of the 90 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 265 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M 
ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M 
Big Ambitions 2026 · $11M 
Revenge on gold diggers 2025 · $9.8M 
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE 2025 · $9.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Digimon Story Time Stranger | $69.99 | 15,845 89% | 475k | $33M (exactly $33,269,746) | Media.Vision Inc. | |
| | ASTLIBRA Revision | older | $24.99 | 30,262 95% | 908k | $23M (exactly $22,687,421) | KEIZO |
| | Big Ambitions | $25.99 | 14,003 92% | 420k | $11M (exactly $10,918,139) | Hovgaard Games | |
| | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
| | Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE | $39.99 | 7,662 70% | 230k | $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) | Netmarble Neo | |
 | Lost Judgment | older | $39.99 | 7,461 93% | 224k | $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) | RGG Studio |
 | Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter | $59.99 | 4,650 95% | 140k | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition | $39.99 | 5,855 86% | 176k | $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. | |
 | Alpha Protocol™ | older | $19.99 | 3,420 83% | 103k | $2.1M (exactly $2,050,974) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | River City Girls 2 | older | $39.99 | 1,552 85% | 47k | $1.9M (exactly $1,861,934) | WayForward |
 | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 | $69.99 | 631 67% | 19k | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. | |
 | The Wife Next Door | $16.99 | 1,951 89% | 59k | $994k (exactly $994,425) | 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL | |
 | Farmer's Dynasty 2 | · EA | $24.99 | 1,225 72% | 37k | $918k (exactly $918,382) | UMEO Studios |
 | Wicked Seed | $19.99 | 1,376 94% | 41k | $825k (exactly $825,187) | Dead Right Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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