Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Modern

Only 18 developers shipped a Modern-Day Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Truxton Extreme, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $69k, ×147 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 23 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $2.2k → $898 → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $70k (exactly $69,722)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 70
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 292 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $69k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 23 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project Gunship · EA older $14.99 836 75% 25k $376k (exactly $375,949) Sklorite Studios LLC
Truxton Extreme $24.99 93 95% 2.8k $70k (exactly $69,722) Tatsujin
AHEGAL SEASONS older $2.99 336 90% 10k $30k (exactly $30,139) OppaiMan 2D
KILLRUN older $4.99 153 67% 4.6k $23k (exactly $22,904) BULKHEAD
无梦少女 DreamlessGirl $9.99 49 65% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) REZEROR STUDIO
Deputinization older $5.97 45 97% 1.4k $8.1k (exactly $8,060) Myttsi Zabav
Struggle Offensive · EA older $1.99 132 63% 4.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,880) OXO Games
Dr. Professor Scientist's Weapons Testing Facility older $4.99 48 77% 1.4k $7.2k (exactly $7,186) Cool Smithy Games
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube
Neon Ships: The Type'em Up Shooter older $4.99 43 86% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Sensen Games
Brave Rounds $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) PlayShift Games
Astro Busters · EA $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Michael Prymus, Piotr Przybył
Red Crucible Assault · EA $14.99 7 100% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Massive Head Games
Pain to Satisfaction · EA $1.99 31 100% 930 $1.9k (exactly $1,851) WSG Entertainment
DA PAPER BOY $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) 3D Dojo Studios
Scouts Out $6.99 6 100% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Rotating Games
Don't Forget to Smile $5.99 5 100% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Existerror Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.