Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame?

Wargame

Of 687 developers who shipped a Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,165 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1121 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 1,165 games are announced against 375 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 1,165 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 687
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $2.4k → $1.4k → $1.3k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 687
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,926)
Top 5% $704k (exactly $703,683)
Developers, 2 yr 687
Released games 2,343
Announced 1,165
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 209,001 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 418 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,165 games are announced against 375 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Wargame

148 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Wargame + Card Battler Poor odds $719 17 devs
  2. Wargame + Adventure Poor odds $718 80 devs
  3. Wargame + Arcade Poor odds $657 54 devs
  4. Wargame + Top-Down Shooter Poor odds $657 30 devs
  5. Hack and Slash + Wargame Poor odds $598 21 devs
  6. Swordplay + Wargame Poor odds $539 17 devs
  7. 3D Platformer + Wargame Poor odds $539 16 devs
  8. Wargame + Tower Defense Poor odds $479 104 devs
  9. Wargame + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $450 14 devs
  10. Third-Person Shooter + Wargame Poor odds $449 45 devs
  11. Wargame + Score Attack Poor odds $180 10 devs
  12. Wargame + Zombies Poor odds $179 19 devs
  13. Hero Shooter + Wargame Poor odds $60 12 devs
  14. Submarine + Wargame Dead $65k 10 devs
  15. Wargame + Dragons Dead $6.6k 8 devs
  16. Wargame + Horror Dead $6.6k 11 devs
  17. Wargame + Trading Dead $5.4k 10 devs
  18. Wargame + Local Co-Op Dead $4.5k 6 devs
  19. CRPG + Wargame Dead $4.0k 7 devs
  20. Sniper + Wargame Dead $3.2k 10 devs
  21. Wargame + Visual Novel Dead $3.1k 8 devs
  22. Wargame + Rome Dead $3.0k 5 devs
  23. Wargame + Psychological Horror Dead $2.0k 6 devs
  24. Survival Horror + Wargame Dead $2.0k 4 devs
  25. Wargame + Demons Dead $1.7k 5 devs
  26. Sports + Wargame Dead $1.3k 6 devs
  27. Spectacle fighter + Wargame Dead $1.2k 18 devs
  28. Battle Royale + Wargame Dead $598 11 devs
  29. Wargame + Mythology Dead $539 11 devs
  30. Wargame + Robots Dead $450 19 devs
  31. MMORPG + Wargame Dead $449 4 devs
  32. Wargame + Incremental Dead $359 27 devs
  33. Wargame + Point & Click Dead $359 16 devs
  34. MOBA + Wargame Dead $300 9 devs
  35. Action-Adventure + Wargame Dead $299 68 devs
  36. 2D Fighter + Wargame Dead $299 16 devs
  37. Wargame + Action Roguelike Dead $267 31 devs
  38. Looter Shooter + Wargame Dead $267 10 devs
  39. Wargame + Nature Dead $225 16 devs
  40. Arena Shooter + Wargame Dead $210 29 devs
  41. Wargame + Bullet Hell Dead $210 26 devs
  42. Wargame + 2D Platformer Dead $209 33 devs
  43. Wargame + Shoot 'Em Up Dead $150 26 devs
  44. 3D Fighter + Wargame Dead $148 27 devs
  45. Wargame + Cyberpunk Dead $148 12 devs
  46. Wargame + Beat 'em up Dead $119 6 devs
  47. Combat Racing + Wargame Dead $59 5 devs
  48. Racing + Wargame Dead $0 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Squad 2020 · $217M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator older $19.99 144,036 97% 4.3M $86M (exactly $86,378,389) Landfall
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.