Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Wargame?

Wargame + Nature

Only 16 developers shipped a Nature Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Empire of the Ants, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $230 in the last 2 years and $230 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $419 → $1.6k → $300 → $179
Outcomes for Wargame + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $225 (exactly $225)
Top 25% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 964 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $230, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Empire of the Ants 2024 · $1.1M Automata Empire 2016 · $13k On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero 2022 · $13k FIREGROUND Modern War 2020 · $10k Kings Town 2020 · EA · $6.9k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Automata Empire older $8.99 48 66% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) Nonadecimal Creative
On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero older $4.99 85 87% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Queen
FIREGROUND Modern War older $4.99 69 68% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Xyak-Xyak
Kings Town · EA older $9.99 23 56% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Leturs Labs
Nemesis: Race Against The Pandemic older $4.99 30 53% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Arcade Theory
Ant Empire older $3.99 34 67% 1.0k $4.1k (exactly $4,070) Gas Lantern Games
This is My Dungeon · EA older $11.99 8 62% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Amagumo Horn
Turret Kingdom $8.99 6 66% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Tito Hernandez, Jose Alvarez, Loop Game… (Tito Hernandez, Jose Alvarez, Loop Games CR)
Story of the Olivia $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Uğur ÇELİK
Kings of Cratia $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) eniscoskun
Revolvermen $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Oskar Wetterbrandt
The Last Bug $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) 苦柚Games
Paper Planes · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Creekside Interactive
FastMoBa $2.50 3 100% 90 $225 (exactly $225) Nguyen Thanh Chinh
Arena Fighter $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) TAHA Games
Seeds & Sparks $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) SMAR Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.