Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Wargame?

Wargame + Bullet Hell

Of 26 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 32 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $356 → $1.8k → $359 → $599 → $120 → $150 → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $21,333)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 90
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Bullet Hell; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shoot 'Em Up, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 533 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $210, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beach Defense: Zombie Invasion $3.99 197 81% 5.9k $24k (exactly $23,581) Only Fun Games
Bees vs Zombees $7.99 89 92% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) DeadPixel
Sexy Iron Maidens $4.99 123 69% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Earl Marx
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Deputinization older $5.97 45 97% 1.4k $8.1k (exactly $8,060) Myttsi Zabav
Struggle Offensive · EA older $1.99 132 63% 4.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,880) OXO Games
SKYRAID · EA older $19.99 10 100% 300 $6.0k (exactly $5,997) Zaidos Games
Eagles of World War 2 $9.99 15 86% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Paul Connor
Nemesis: Race Against The Pandemic older $4.99 30 53% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Arcade Theory
RIP · EA older $9.99 13 46% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) INVERTED SOULS
Starfield Battlegrounds $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) 谭浩翔
Strike Mission $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Cube Games
Battle Medal: Super Auto Chess Swarm War $7.99 5 80% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) SOT烈
Meteor Expedition · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) GQ
The Black Siege $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Fishbump Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.