Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Wargame?

Wargame + Arcade

Of 54 developers who shipped an Arcade Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $51k, ×82 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 66 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $891 → $450 → $300 → $300 → $748 → $748 (still earning) → $810 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $51k (exactly $51,266)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 210
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 31,064 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $660, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $51k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Nuclear Option 2023 · EA · $6.2M War Dust VR: 32v32 Battlefields 2020 · $1.1M Boat Crew 2022 · EA · $323k Darwinia 2005 · $281k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
War Dust VR: 32v32 Battlefields older $24.99 1,489 80% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,303) raptor lab
Boat Crew · EA older $24.99 431 89% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Tabbing Tabby
Darwinia older $11.99 781 78% 23k $281k (exactly $280,926) Introversion Software
Waves of Steel older $19.99 408 90% 12k $245k (exactly $244,678) TMA Games LLC
Steel Crew · EA older $14.99 543 81% 16k $244k (exactly $244,187) Magnus Ander
Attack on Toys · EA older $6.99 1,158 93% 35k $243k (exactly $242,833) N7T-GAMES
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Sky Knights · EA older $9.99 373 92% 11k $112k (exactly $111,788) Mudpike
Vincemus - Air Combat $14.99 114 82% 3.4k $51k (exactly $51,266) Virtual Convict
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
Reflex Unit: Strike Ops $15.99 75 84% 2.3k $36k (exactly $35,978) ROBOSARU Games
Full Metal Sergeant 2 $9.99 66 89% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) CarloC
Sexy Iron Maidens $4.99 123 69% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Earl Marx
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Hydra Heli $4.99 83 91% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Ideas Per Second
Hydra Heli 2 $6.99 30 80% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Ideas Per Second

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.