Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Wargame?

Wargame + Dragons

Only 8 developers shipped a Dragon Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BRIGANDINE ABYSS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.6k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 10.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1780% on the market, 16 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Wargame + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,649)
Top 25% $100k (exactly $100,328)
Top 5% $372k (exactly $371,926)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 31
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1780% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,477 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
The Falconeer: Revolution Remaster older $19.99 416 81% 12k $249k (exactly $249,475) Tomas Sala
Crimson Tactics: The Rise of The White Banner older $29.99 245 46% 7.4k $220k (exactly $220,426) Black March Studios
Mage and Monsters older $4.99 903 89% 27k $135k (exactly $135,179) Lasse Zacho Malver
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Sunbreak War $8.99 122 81% 3.7k $33k (exactly $32,903) Candlelight Studio
On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero older $4.99 85 87% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Queen
Fantasy Empires older $9.99 33 84% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Silicon Knights
Open The Gate: Just A Little $5.99 37 75% 1.1k $6.6k (exactly $6,649) Abubu Dance
A Token War older $12.99 16 81% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) UpRoom Games
Hidden Heir $4.99 21 66% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) AYS CODE YAZILIM
Gladiator $2.99 8 0% 240 $718 (exactly $718) coreloop
All-Front Assault $8.99 1 0% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Star Heart Workshop
Dragons of 1066 · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Huge Workshop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.