Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Wargame?

Wargame + Demons

Only 5 developers shipped a Demon Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Yokai Art 2: Tales of the Nine-Tails, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×12 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.7k against a market of $630. 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 12 announced, ×12 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Wargame + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,106)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 28
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 75% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 35,597 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×12 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Yokai Art: Night Parade of One Hundred Demons older $6.99 1,132 89% 34k $237k (exactly $237,380) Secret Labo
Yokai Art 2: Tales of the Nine-Tails $9.99 314 75% 9.4k $94k (exactly $94,106) Secret Labo
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Hell older $29.99 30 43% 900 $27k (exactly $26,991) Hunted Cow Studios
希望之城 The City Of Hope older $6.99 126 68% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 家里蹲工作室
Cemetery Warrior V older $3.99 32 71% 960 $3.8k (exactly $3,830) Falco Software
Hidden Heir $4.99 21 66% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) AYS CODE YAZILIM
Oil Invasion older $4.99 13 53% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Ruskija game experience, Valkeala Softw… (Ruskija game experience, Valkeala Software)
The Lost Painter $2.99 19 100% 570 $1.7k (exactly $1,704) Ravenhome Studios
BLEST $6.99 4 0% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Oedipe Games
Heroes of Higher Realms $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DreamMasters Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.