Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Wargame?

Wargame + Robots

Only 19 developers shipped a Robot Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mechabellum, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 36 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 36 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $359 → $3.4k → $150 → $30 → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,863)
Top 5% $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 60
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Tactical
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 19,621 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $8.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Animal Revolt Battle Simulator older $14.99 6,571 95% 197k $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) VDimension
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
Alien Marauder · EA older $19.99 323 60% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) Vexan Studio
Chaos Galaxy 2 older $19.99 304 82% 9.1k $182k (exactly $182,309) Han Zhiyu
Codex of Victory older $14.99 260 69% 7.8k $117k (exactly $116,922) Ino-Co Plus
Battlecruisers older $9.99 386 83% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) Mecha Weka
Death Ring: Second Impact · EA $19.99 163 78% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Rouge Mecha
OVRLRD · EA older $29.99 96 85% 2.9k $86k (exactly $86,371) OVRLRD
Age Of Warbots $9.99 160 83% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) VDimension
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Sexy Iron Maidens $4.99 123 69% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Earl Marx
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
UniWar $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Spooky House
Nexus Wars · EA $24.99 1 0% 30 $750 (exactly $750) Ajion Arts
OKTOFYBER $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) iaroslav motailov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.