Do I ship it?

Games › Submarine › Submarine + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Submarine Wargame?

Submarine + Wargame

Only 10 developers shipped a Submarine Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $65k against a market of $630. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 103.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 3510% on the market, 18 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Submarine + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $105k → $3.4k → $65k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Submarine + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Median $65k (exactly $64,789)
Top 25% $110k (exactly $110,372)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 38
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3510% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Submarine, Wargame
Price point
$17.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 6,760 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.4k, median $65k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.4k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Submarine with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  2. + StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  3. + Naval CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $3.4k · 19 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds10 devs · median $3.0k · 21 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $2.8k · 31 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds38 devs · median $2.7k · 49 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds10 devs · median $2.4k · 18 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds18 devs · median $1.8k · 34 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds19 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  11. + ExplorationPoor odds32 devs · median $959 · 72 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $958 · 65 announced

All 22 pairs on the Submarine page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts 2023 · $7.0M Cold Waters 2017 · $5.5M War on the Sea 2021 · $3.8M NavalArt 2018 · EA · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
War on the Sea older $39.99 3,151 76% 95k $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) Killerfish Games
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
IronWolf VR older $19.99 1,087 94% 33k $652k (exactly $651,874) Ionized Studios
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
Uboat Attack $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) VOODOO
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
Tigershark $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) N-Space
Battleships Combat: Evolved $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Mantegral Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.